Submitted abstracts:

1.
Revisiting sunspot catalogs: data merging and index construction

F. Clette, L. Lefévre, T. Baranyi, A. Ludmány

In this progress report, we summarize the work accomplished for converting and merging the DPD and the USAF-Mount-Wilson sunspot group catalogs. This complex operation allowed us to better understand the specificities of those catalogs and identify systematic choices or biases attached to each data set. Exploiting the extremely detailed single-spot information available in the DPD catalog, we can implement different tunable filters (spatial resolution, classes of features, group splitting) in order to better match other independent but less-detailed data sets or also to approximate solar indices. We will show what we learned when deriving the catalog-based sunspot number and comparing it to the International Sunspot Index Ri and a few reference index series. It appears that the inclusion or rejection of tiny features at the sunspot-pore boundary can play a large role. In our investigations, we also conclude on an unusual drift of the sunspot index in the declining phase of the last sunspot cycle (cycle 23), similar but not identical to some other published studies.
2.
Studies of CME initiation: observations and simulations combined

Lidia van Driel-Gesztelyi, Tibor Torok
We report on highlights of SOTERIA.solarobs.nce projects led by  OBSPARIS, in which we analyse observational signatures of several dynamic events 
in the corona and carry out MHD simulations reproducing the main aspects of the observed events. The cases include merging and reconfiguring
filaments (20 Nov. 2003 and 19 May 2007), conversion between twist and writhe helicities in erupting filaments and CMEs (27 May 2002 and
18 February 2003) and the rotation of a sunspot triggering a CME  (6 July 2006). The latter study is in collaboration with UNIGRAZ and HVAR.
We also present the new deliverable by OBSPARIS, a web page presenting SOTERIA modelling of observed solar dynamic phenomena,
including some of the above cases as well as a study contributed by KU LEUVEN. This web page will serve as benchmark, tutorial, and information
exchange platform for SOTERIA members. We demonstrate our progress made with this new deliverable, i.e. the completion of the 2010 milestone.
3.
Application of data assimilation to solar wind forecasting models
Maria Elena Innocenti, Giovanni Lapenta, Bojan Vrsnak, Manuela Temmer, Astrid Veronig, Lapo Bettarini, Edwin Lee, Stefano Markidis, Marina Skender, François Crespon, Chafih Skandrani

Data Assimilation through Kalman filtering [1,2] is a powerful statistical tool which allows to combine modeling and observations to increase the degree of knowledge of a given system. We apply this technique to the forecast of solar wind parameters (proton speed, proton temperature, absolute value of the magnetic field and proton density) at 1 AU, using the model described in [3] and ACE data as observations. The model, which relies on GOES 12 observations of the percentage of the meridional slice of the sun covered by coronal holes, grants 1-day and 6-hours in advance forecasts of the aforementioned quantities in quiet times (CMEs are not taken into account) during the declining phase of the solar cycle and is tailored for specific time intervals. We show that the application of data assimilation generally improves the quality of the forecasts during quiet times and, more notably, extends the periods of applicability of the model, which can now provide reliable forecasts also in presence of CMEs and for periods other than the ones it was designed for.
References: [1] R. Kalman, J. Basic Eng. 82, 35 (1960); [2] G. Welch and G. Bishop, Technical Report TR
95-041, University of North Carolina, Department of Computer Science (2001); [3] B. Vrsnak, M. Temmer, and A. Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315 (2007).

4.
Toward application of the data assimilation on the space weather models: sensitivity analysis of flip model

C. Skandrani(1), F. Crespon(1), G. Lapenta(2), L. Bettarini(2), M-E. Innocenti(2)
(1)NOVELTIS
(2)KULeuven

It's well known that one of the main source of error in solar wind models is related to errors in their solar magnetograms inputs.
Data Assimilation technique could be a good candidate to improve inputs and minimizes errors for solar wind forecasts.
Our purpose here is to start first by studying the sensitivity analysis of a suitable physics based models of the solar wind expansion:
flip-mhd model (http://code.google.com/p/flip-mhd/) which is used to determine the ambient solar wind speed and IMF polarity.
Indeed, during the elaboration of the DA, sensitivity analysis, which studies how perturbations on the model input engender
perturbations on the outputs, can turn out to be a precious tool. Sensitivity study is performed thanks to a Monte Carlo method (ensemble method).
We describe and analyze the model error and solar wind parameters uncertainties for the following objectives:
- to characterize the sensibilities through ensemble variances,
- to estimate the variances and the spatiotemporal structures of the error in terms of representation of the magnetic and velocity field,
due to the uncertainties of the source surface magnetograms parameters inputs,
- to study the ensemble spatial error covariances, which consists to analyze influence functions called "representers" and illustrate the response
of the model to the input perturbation in a located point of the model. This allow, without implementing the consuming DA procedure,
to understand better the impact and potential contribution brought by a single observation data.
First results of the study appear promising in view of implementing solar wind models by DA technique.
5.
UNIGRAZ progress report
M. Temmer, A. Veronig, W. Hirtenfellner, W. Maierhofer, W. Pötzi, T. Rotter, A. Hanslmeier
We will report about the progress of various deliverables for which UNIGRAZ is responsible as well as new collaborations within the SOTERIA consortium. UNIGRAZ has the main deliverable to build a Ca II K telescope at Kanzelhöhe Observatory within WP3. A second main deliverable is the implementation of a web-based searchable catalogue which includes data/events that are produced and maintained by SOTERIA members. Data from the catalogue will be distributed to the entire SOTERIA consortium through the SOTERIA VSO, which will be established by ROB. Besides, fruitful collaborations were raised within the last year in the frame of.solarobs.ntific studies. Of special interest are here collaborative studies on coronal holes with LEUVEN and HVAR, flare/CME event studies and MHD modeling with OBSPARIS and HVAR, flare studies with LPI, CMEs and ICMEs with UGOE as well as studies on the flare-CME relationship with HVAR.

6.
CME and Flare Initiation Challenge

Lapenta, Bettarini, Poedts, Soenen collaboration with OBSPARIS

We propose a challenge aimed at testing the difference among different mathematical models and numerical codes in predicting the initiation and subsequent initial phases of evolution of CMEs and flares.
This activity stems from the EC-funded collaborative project SOTERIA (soteria-space.eu) but is open to the world-wide solar community.
We propose different modeling challenges in 2D and in 3D and we present our first sets of results obtained with different models and codes. The goal is primarily that of zeroing in on the different outcomes of different choices of dissipations, compressibility, beyond-MHD models in determining the role of the different processes of magnetic reconnection and their impact on the onset and evolution of flares and CMEs.
We hope the.solarobs.ntific community will be interested and pick up the challenge. Clearly, modifications to the challenge are still possible based on the input from the community.

7.
Extrapolation of photospheric vector magnetograms:  Tests and applications

G. Valori, T. Török, B. Kliem, V.S. Titov, L. Green, L. van Driel-Gesztelyi, M. Fuhrmann, D. Baker, A. Wallace, S. Vargas

The validation of models of many important solar phenomena, like CME initiation and flux emergence, relies on the accurate knowledge of the magnetic field in the corona. However, the magnetic field is measurable with sufficient accuracy and resolution only in the lower strata of the solar atmosphere, mostly at photospheric levels. In this presentation I will discuss a relaxation technique, known as magnetofrictional method, that can provide the missing coronal information via the the numerical solution of the nonlinear force-free equations in a coronal volume above the photospheric vector magnetogram. A class of solar-relevant, nonlinear force-free equilibria, consisting of an arched current channel held in force-free equilibrium by an external potential field, can be used as a test for the extrapolation code. I will show that such test-equilibria are reconstructed by the magnetofrictional code with very high accuracy, using only the vector field in the bottom boundary as input. In particular, structural features formed in the interface between the flux rope and the surrounding arcade---``hyperbolic flux tube' and ``bald patch separatrix surface'---are reliably reproduced, as are the flux rope twist and the energy and helicity of the configuration. Finally I will give examples of application to measured vector magnetograms in both successful and not successful cases, and I will discuss which are the present limits of extrapolation techniques, and which criteria can be used to address the degree of reliability of reconstructed coronal fields.

8.
Progress of SRC-PAS team on analysis of SphinX and the other solar X-and EUV data

J. Sylwester and S. Gburek for the Wroclaw Team

Data obtained from SphinX between February and November 2009 received a world-wide recognition by the publication of its measurements of X-ray fluence obtained during the very minimum of solar activity observed in 2009. Such measurements have no precedence. The light curve has been presented by EOS Bulletin of American Geophysical Union on 23rd February 2010 (Vol 91, No. 8). The publication has been prepared in collaboration between the SRC-PAS (J. Sylwester, M. Kowalinski, S. Gburek and M. Siarkowski) and Lebedev SOTERIA (S. Kuzin) Teams and the scientists from the Mullard Space Science Laboratory (Prof. K.J.H. Phillips,University College London, UK), Astronomical Institute of Czech Academy of Sciences (dr. F. Farnik) and Astronomical Observatory, National Institute of Astrophysics, Palermo, Italy (Prof. F. Reale).
SphinX observations of particularly well covered AR 11024 has been undertaken in collaboration of SRC-PAS Team members with the XRT Hinode Team from Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, USA and Marshall Space Flight Center NASA (Alexander J. Engell, Marek Siarkowski, Magda Gryciuk, Janusz Sylwester, Barbara Sylwester, Leon Golub, Kelly Korreck, Jonathan Cirtain). This study allowed to investigate more than hundred soft X-ray brightenings seen in the period 3-13 July 2009 on ~100 thousands of SphinX spectra and ~5 thousands of XRT high-resolution images obtained through thin Be and Ti filters. Respective common paper is due to be published in November 2010 issue of ApJ.
The collaboration with Prof. Phillips and Prof. V.D. Kuznetsov, Director of the IZMIRAN institute of Russian Academy of Sciences (http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/ ) resulted in publication in 2010 of four common Papers in ApJ, where interpretation of RESIK Bragg spectrometer flown aboard the CORONAS-F were published under the SOTERIA umbrella. RERIK spectra are still very much unreduced. We hope to proceed with full RESIK data reduction and public access under the SOTERIA follow-up programme.
Intensive collaboration has been continued on common interpretation of SphinX and RESIK data.  Also results from the previous mission CORONAS-F, as obtained using SPIRIT and RESIK have been commonly analyzed by the Lebedev LPI and SRC-PAS Teams. Special attention has been focused on the flare of 15 April 2002, for which reduction of 800+ spectra have been performed. The write-up of a dedicated paper is planned for October 20, during the meeting of LPI and SRC-PAS teams in Wroclaw, Poland.

9.
3-D structure of CMEs and their interplanetary evolution

V. Bothmer, E. Bosman, M. Temmer, A. Veronig, A. Reiners

Since launch in October 2006 more than 500 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the field of view of the COR 2 imagers of the SECCHI remote sensing suites on board the two STEREO spacecraft. The viewing perspectives of these events changed with angular separation of the two STEREO spacecraft. For a  subset of about 80 "best of" events, selected based on the white-light brightness appearances of the CMEs in the COR2s field of view, the GCS-modell has been applied to model their 3-D structure. The modeling results have been compared with the identified low coronal and photospheric source region properties as inferred from SOHO/MDI/EIT, SDO/AIA and Proba2 observations. Here we present a summary of the results of the ongoing analysis and the implications for  the 3-D structure of CMEs and their interplanetary evolution.

10.
Status of SphinX data Catalogues available for SOTERIA Consortium

S. Gburek and J. Sylwester for the Wroclaw Team

Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) was an instrument designed to observe the Sun in X-rays in the energy range 0.85 -15.00 keV.
SphinX was incorporated within the Russian TESIS X and EUV telescope complex aboard the CORONAS-Photon satellite which was launched on January 30,
2009 at 13:30 UT from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, northern Russia. Since February, 2009 SphinX has been measuring solar X-ray radiation nearly
continuously till the end of spacecraft active operation in space on 29 November 2009. All SphinX data collected during the mission are kept on three mirror
servers at different geographical locations in EU. At present SphinX data undergo reduction to level-1 format. About 40% of the entire SphinX data files have
been already reduced. We explain the Sphinx archive structure, discuss access to data repositories and describe data dissemination methods and their reduction
procedure. We show how particular SphinX data products contribute to SOTERIA.

11.
Heliospheric Propagation of Coronal Disturbances and their Space Weather Consequences  (Collaborative research on WP4 Task 4.1 & Deliverable 4.2)

Bojan Vršnak1, Susanne Vennerstrom2, Thea Falkenberg2, Maria Elena  Innocenti3, Astrid Veronig4, Manuela Temmer4, Thomas Rotter4, Lidia van Driel-Gesztelyi5, Francois Crespon6, Mateja Dumbović1, Tomislav Žic1, Giuliana Verbanac7, Christian Most1,8, Tanja Rollet4,8
1Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, Zagreb, Croatia (HVAR)
2National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kobenhavn, Denmark (DTU)
3 Afdeling Plasma-astrofysica, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Heverlee, Belgium  (KULeuven)
4 Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria (UNIGRAZ)
5 Observatoire de Paris, Meudon, France (OBSPARIS)
6 Noveltis, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, France (NOVELTIS)
7Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, Zagreb, Croatia (non-SOTERIA)
8Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz, Austria (non-SOTERIA)

We summarize the results achieved in past two years through the collaborative research in the frame of Task 4.1 of WP4, which will be presented in Deliverable 4.2. The research was focused on the propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs) as well as on the two related aspects of space weather:  the geomagnetic activity and variations of the cosmic ray flux. Various forecasting aspects related to these phenomena are also considered. Regarding the ICME propagation, we present a comparison of performances of the analytical “drag based model” and the numerical MHD model ENLIL, and compare both with measurements of ICME kinematics based on STEREO and interplanetary.solarobs.tillation observations. Regarding HSSs, we present the advanced version of the empirical model which relates the coronal hole size/position with the characteristics of solar wind at 1 AU and the related geomagnetic activity. The model is significantly improved, especially for specific solar wind parameters like the solar wind velocity, by applying the data assimilation technique, which provides a 6-hour resolution forecast of improved accuracy. Finally, we present some new results concerning modulations of the cosmic ray flux caused by ICMEs and HSSs.

12.
New SSI and TSI reconstruction suggests large value of the radiative solar forcing

A. I. Shapiro (1), W. Schmutz (1),  G. Thuillier (2) , E. Rozanov (1,3), M. Haberreiter (1),   M. Schoell (1, 4),  A. V. Shapiro (1,3), S. Nyeki (1)
(1) Physikalisch-Meteorologishes Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center, Dorfstrasse 33, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
(2) LATMOS-CNRS Bp 3, 91371 Verrieres le Buisson, France
(3) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate.solarobs.nce ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
(4) Institute for Astronomy ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

We have developed and published the COde for Solar Irradiance (COSI) which allows us to calculate the entire solar spectrum. COSI reproduces the spectral irradiance measured by SOLSTICE (up to 320 nm) and SIM (from 320 nm onward) onboard the SORCE satellite during the 2008 solar minimum as well as SOLSPEC during the ATLAS 3 mission in 1994 with high accuracy.
COSI is also used as a tool for modeling the variability of the solar irradiance. In our new reconstruction we represent the quiet Sun as a combination of two components. The first corresponds to the least active areas of the Sun as presently observed, while the second component is responsible for the magnetic activity of the quiet Sun. The time-dependent filling factors of these components are calculated based on the solar activity as derived from cosmogenic isotope concentrations in natural archieves. This allows us to obtain a time-dependent reconstructed solar spectrum from 7000 BC to the present with a temporal resolution of 22 years. From 1610 onward we have additional information from sunspot numbers, which allows the reconstruction of the spectral solar irradiance with a yearly resolution.
These basic assumptions lead to a total and spectral solar irradiance that was substantially lower during the Maunder minimum than observed today. The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations published in the recent literature. Using our reconstruction as an input to a chemistry-climate model we show that the enhanced UV variability results in significant variations of stratospheric ozone and temperature.

13.
New methods to monitor the auroral oval location and activity based on magnetic and GPS data

S. Vennerstrom(1), F. Crespon(2), T. Asikainen(3), K. Mursula (3), F. Christiansen(1)
(1)National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark (DTU),
(2) Noveltis, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, France (NOVELTIS),
(3)Department of physical.solarobs.nces, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland (UOulu)

Monitoring the location of the auroral region is important in a wide range a space weather applications ranging from communication through effects of high-energy radiation to ground induced currents (GIC’s). In consequence the latitudinal shifts of this region are constantly being monitored by the US DMSP satellite program, by measuring particle precipitation.
We present here two new methods to derive the auroral oval location. One method based on magnetic field observations from  low Earth orbit satellites developed at DTU and the other based on high latitude TEC maps derived from GPS data by NOVELTIS. We consider these methods as complimentary to the estimates based on particle precipitation measurements. We compare these two new methods and we also compare the results to the auroral boundaries inferred from  precipitation data. Various precipitation boundaries are considered, both as inferred from POES data and derived by UOulu and as inferred from the DMSP data. We find a good correspondence between the metods. In addition it is demonstrated that the magnetic data can be used to monitor the intensity of the auroral electrojets. For the northern hemisphere the variation in intensity is well correlated with the AU and AL indices.

14.
Overview of WP4 activities and collaborations 

S. Vennerstrom and all WP4 participants and collaborators:  Hvar, UOulu, LPI, NOVELTIS, IEEA, KULeuven, MTA-KFKI-RMKI, ROB, UNIGRAZ, DTU, CCMC

Focus of the second year of the work in WP4 has been on a set of collaborative.solarobs.ntific projects ranging from heliospheric propagation of solar events to the effects on the Earth environment and on scientific instruments operating in space  as well as communication. Three.solarobs.ntific reports are being completed as deliverables D4.2, D4.3 and D4.5. Here we provide a short overview of the work and the collaborations.                                                  

15.
Geomagnetic shielding of SEPs – local time variation in cut-off latitude

S. Vennerstrom(1), T. Asikainen(2), K.Mursula(2),
(1)National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark (DTU),
(2)Department of physical.solarobs.nces, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland (UOulu)

An important property of the Earth’s magnetic field in the context of space weather, is its ability to shield spacecraft located well within the magnetosphere from solar energetic particles (SEP’s). For polar orbiting spacecraft in low-Earth orbit a particular important aspect is the so-called cut-off latitude. The cut-off latitude is observed as a characteristic steep drop in particle flux seen in a narrow latitude band, when a polar orbiting LEO space craft crosses from high to low latitudes during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The cut-off latitude is known to vary with the geomagnetic Dst index, but significant deviations are observed that appear to be very local time dependent.
In SOTERIA two important goals are directly connected to Dst and local time variations of magnetic activity: (a) to create new measures of geomagnetic activity based on magnetic observations from polar orbiting satellites, and (b) to make a new ground-based Dst like index, Dcx, based on a more dense ring of low latitude ground magnetic observatories than utilized for Dst. Both of these types of measurements, satellites and ground-based networks, can naturally be used to monitor local time variations of low-latitude magnetic disturbances. We have therefore made a study of the association between cut off latitude variations for different local times and the variation of the local magnetic field magnitude at these local times. The local time variations of cut-off latitude is determined by using simultaneous observations of energetic protons from the POES satellites and also from SAMPEX. We examine two events in detail and find a good association between magnetic disturbances and cut off latitude variations, but further work seems to be needed to separate ionospheric and magnetospheric contributions to low and mid-latitude magnetic disturbances.

16.
Calibrated fluxes of energetic particles and their usage in magnetospheric diagnostics
Timo Asikainen(1), Kalevi Mursula(1),  Susanne Vennerstom(2)

(1)Department of Physics Centre of Excellence in Research, University of Oulu, Finland (UOulu)
(2)National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark (DTU)

Low-altitude polar orbiting NOAA/POES satellites have measured fluxes of energetic particles nearly continuously from 1978 up to the present, covering almost three solar cycles. However, using these data for long-term studies includes several problems, most importantly due the significant degradation of the solid state detectors of the energetic particle (MEPED) instruments caused by radiation. This tends to increase the effective energy thresholds of the instrument, leading to underestimated particle fluxes already a couple of years after satellite launch. We have recently analyzed the radiation damage suffered by the MEPED instruments and calibrated the entire dataset for these effects, thus producing a reliable long-term data base of magnetospheric energetic particles.
Here we discuss the calibration procedure and present the corrected fluxes. We note that the corrected fluxes of energetic particles offer interesting opportunities to study the Earth's space environment. E.g., they can be used to estimate more reliably the structure and dynamics of the magnetospheric tail by measuring the so called isotropic boundary of energetic particles. The location of this boundary is known to be a good proxy of the tail electric current, reflecting the elongation of the tail during magnetospheric substorms and storms. We have used the isotropic boundary to study the dynamics of the auroral oval, as well as modeling the contribution of the tail current and other current systems to the corrected Dst index. We also compare the fluxes to the ground-based Dcx index (provided by UOulu) and the satellite based Dst index (provided by DTU) and discuss their relation.

17.
Simulation of Energetic Storm Particle events with Solpenco

K. Kecskemety

Energetic storm particle (ESP) events appear around the shock passage during solar energetic particle events associated with coronal mass ejections. In the framework of SOTERIA D4.2 RMKI is involved in Space weather model validation and forecasting using the Solar Particle Engineering Code. On a sample of more than 20 events the characteristic features are reproduced and their variation is analyzed as a function of various parameters (shock speed, longitude, particle energy).

18.
Model and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere

T. Egorova, E. Rozanov, N. Hochmuth, A.V, Shapiro, A.I. Shapiro and W. Schmutz

We have developed climate-chemistry-ionosphere model SOCOL which is based on a general circulation model and includes complete representation of the chemistry of neutral and ionized species in the atmosphere from the ground up to the mesopause. To validate the model we have simulated the response of the neutral and charged species in the middle atmosphere to the short-term increase of the solar UV irradiance in January 2004 and severe solar proton events in October-November 2003 and January 2005. The model functioning in the nowcasting mode will be illustrated using specially designed visualization software.        

19.
A prediction for the 24th solar cycle obtained combining various methods

R. Brajša (1), A. Hanslmeier (2), A. Ludmany (3), J. Muraközy (3), G. Verbanac (4),  H. Wöhl (5), M. Roth (5), and L. Svalgaard (6)
(1)Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Croatia
(2)Institut für Physik, IGAM, Universität Graz, Austria
(3)Heliopysical Observatory, HAS, Debrecen, Hungary
(4)Geophysical Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Croatia
(5)Kiepenheuer-Institut für Sonnenphysik, Freiburg, Germany
(6)HEPL, Stanford University, CA, USA

We predict the time and the amplitude of the next, 24th solar cycle using the data available in  September 2010. The emphasis in this analysis is on the minimum - maximum method with the time lag. The correlation coefficient of the activity levels, represented by the relative sunspot number, sharply raises for positive time lags after the preceding minimum. The monthly and yearly values of the relative sunspot number are used to obtain the mathematical representation of the linear relationship of the values in and around activity minima and following maxima. This enables an improved prediction of the next solar activity maximum's amplitude. Further, the result obtained in this way are combined with the results obtained by different methods, such as the asymmetry method and the ARMA method and with the published predictions. Finally, correlations between the starting latitude and the cycle maximum, as well as between the number of spotless days in the minimum and the cycle maximum are investigated. The final result of a combination of the methods mentioned above predicts a lower amplitude of the next 24th solar activity maximum in comparison with several previous cycles. 

20.
Ionospheric Scintillations: Their relationship to magnetic storms and the effect on technological systems

Y. Béniguel (1), F. Crespon (2), C. Skandrani (2), S. Vennerstrom (3)
(1) IEEA, Courbevoie, France
(2) Noveltis, Toulouse, France
(3) DTU, Copenhagen, Denmark

As a result of propagation through ionosphere electron density irregularities, transionospheric radio signals may experience amplitude and phase fluctuations. The.solarobs.tillation activity behaves differently with latitude. It is more intense at low latitudes (-20° to 20° magnetic latitude) and during periods of high solar activity. In this region, the signal fluctuations specially occur during equinoxes, after sunset, and last a few hours. Scintillation also occurs at high latitudes (> 60°) but with different characteristics and a reduced intensity. The magnetic field plays an important role which results in elongated bubbles in that direction and consequently in an anisotropic medium. At mid latitudes,.solarobs.tillation was only observed in the occurrence of magnetic storms. The medium’s drift velocity and its direction are also important parameters to be considered. These fluctuations result in signal degradation from VHF up to C band. The corresponding errors are the most prominent errors for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS).
This paper will review the.solarobs.tillation characteristics, its relationship to the magnetic activity and the effect on communication and navigation systems. One model to estimate these.solarobs.tillation and their effects will be presented.

21.
Debrecen sunspot catalogue compilation, the side story
Lajos Gyori

A sunspot catalogue, as it can be guessed by its name, contains data of the sunspots (position, area, magnetic field, structure). Therefore, the main task of the catalogue compilation is to find the sunspots in solar images and determine the data characterizing them, possibly in an automatic way.  To make a catalogue complete we must gather the solar images from a wide
variety of observatories. These images are taken in different ways and their qualities are also different. Furthermore, the relevant informations needed when processing them are linked to them differently. Generally, while a solar image (especially a photoheliogram) and its relevant data  appears in the computer, it goes through a number of hands, which means several occasions to make errors. That, even in these circumstances, the catalogue should be compiled in an automated way as much as possible and should be highly reliable, several problems must be solved and the different steps of the processing must be continuously checked. Here we give a fortaste of these problems.


22.
Modeling field-aligned currents from single orbit magnetic data.
Freddy Christiansen and Susanne Vennerstrøm (DTU Space), and Francois Crespon (Noveltis)

We estimate field-aligned and ionospheric currents for a number of storm time events from magnetic data from single orbits of the two Low Earth Orbiting satellites, Oersted and Champ.
The field-aligned currents are parameterized as simple current segments of Region 0, Region 1, and Region 2 currents. Region 1 and 2 currents are described by 4 current segments each, dayside/nightside and dawn/dusk, while the Region 0 current is described by a single segment. Assuming ionospheric conductivities, the currents are closed in the ionosphere and the full magnetic perturbation from the field-aligned/ionospheric currents are fitted to the magnetic observations from the Oersted and Champ satellites.
Using maps of total electron content computed from GPS data to estimate the ionospheric conductivities we arrive at a snapshot of the near-earth current systems during magnetic storms that may be compared to conventional statistical appraches.
From the ionospheric currents and conductivities we compute the Joule heating of the ionosphere during storm time events.

23.
Long-term reconstructions of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)
L.E.A. Vieira, T. Dudok de Wit, M. Kretzschmar, G. Cessateur

The solar electromagnetic emission (the solar irradiance) is the main source of energy of the highly coupled geophysical system.  Space-based
observations of the solar irradiance proved that it is extremely variable. Furthermore, observations of several components of the solar atmosphere
have shown that the variability of the solar irradiance is closely related to the evolution of the structure of the solar magnetic field. Although
these observations have imposed constraints on the amplitude of the variability through the solar magnetic activity cycle, it was not possible
to assess long-term trends. Changes of the irradiance level on time-scales from decades to millennia affect directly the Earth’s climate, although
the level of these effects is still uncertain. In order to estimate the long-term evolution of the total (and spectral) solar irradiance, several
models have been developed. These models are based on the proxies of the evolution of the solar magnetic flux, such as the sunspot number and cosmogenic
isotopes recorded on natural archives. Here we revise the most recent reconstructions  of the solar irradiance that can be employed as realistic descriptions of the
external source of heat of the geophysical system for paleo-climate models.

24.
How is the solar spectral variability in the EUV related to features on the Sun ?
T. Dudok de Wit (LPC2E, Orléans), F. Goryaev (Lebedev Physical Inst., Moscow),
M. Kretzschmar (LPC2E, Orléans), J. Lilensten (LPG, Grenoble), J. Aboudarham (LESIA, Paris)


One of the main challenges with solar spectral irradiance is to understand what causes its variability. The contributions from features
such as plages and faculae are well understood. The recent and exceptionally long solar minimum, however, has shown that the classical
picture needs to be refined. In particular, it suggests that coronal holes may also play a significant role. This contribution is crucial for
assessing the long-term variability of the Sun.
We address this problem from a statistical point of view and apply a Bayesian blind source separation approach to 8 years of spectral
irradiance data from TIMED/SEE to investigate the causes of the variability. Since the method is empirical, there is no model bias. We
find that the variability in the EUV can be expressed in terms of three elementary spectra with differing time evolutions. A DEM analysis
reveals that one of the spectra indeed decribes the cool contribution from coronal holes while the two other ones decribe the quiet Sun and
active regions. It is remarkable that a statistical technique provides such new insight into the solar EUV irradiance. These results also
provide guidance for the definition of new solar proxies.

25.
What hemispheric and longitudinal asymmetries imply about the Sun and why are they important for the Earth’s space environment?
Kalevi Mursula(1), Ilpo Virtanen(1), Liyun Zhang(1,2), Ilya Usoskin(3), Timo Asikainen(1)
Andras Ludmany(4), Judit Murakozy(4)
(1)Department of Physics, University of Oulu, Finland (UOulu)
(2)Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, NAO, CAS, Beijing, China
(3)Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Finland
(4) Konkoly Observatory, Hungary (KO)


It is known since long that solar activity is unevenly distributed over the solar surface, both along the solar longitude and between the two solar hemispheres. Related studies of hemispheric and longitudinal asymmetries have been pursued for long, using different methods and different activity parameters. Unfortunately, these studies have so far remained at a rather marginal status due to the rather inconclusive and sporadic occurrence of the asymmetries.
However, it is known since recently that the solar hemispheric asymmetries depict systematic long-term patterns that have prevailed for more than a century. Also, using a dynamic reference frame, more significant longitudinal asymmetries have been found that are quite similar for different solar parameters. Also, solar longitudinal asymmetries depict systematic long-term patterns that seem to be common for all cool stars.
We review here these recent developments on solar hemispheric and longitudinal asymmetries and their role in improving our understanding solar activity and solar magnetic field generation. We also note that solar asymmetries affect the Earth’s space environment and that the newly found patterns allow the possibility to make better long-term forecasts of solar related disturbances in near-Earth space.

26.
Radiation belts effects on the functioning of the TESIS and SPHINX instruments on-board CORONAS-Photon and comparison of the measured data with the SPENVIS model predictions
S. Kuzin, V. Slemzin, A. Ulyanov, S. Bogachev, - LPI (Moscow, Russia) J. Sylwester, S. Gburek, P. Podgorski, M. Kowalinski - SRC PAN (Wroclaw, Poland)

Space instruments on LEO satellites work under the impact of various environmental factors, which should be taken into account to prevent
distortion of the observational data and gradual degradation of the payload. For solar imaging telescopes and photometers the most
important factor is the radiation of energetic particles which produce a spontaneous background in the detectors.
The influence of such radiation on  instrument operation can be estimated with the use of the space environment models. These models
are embedded in dedicated software and available via standalone or the Internet interfaces like, for instance, SPENVIS interface. Obtained
from models estimations of the particle impact on the instrumentation are useful for designing necessary shielding at the instrument
development phase.
The report describes radiation effects observed in the TESIS and SphinX instrument data. Issues related to construction of both
instruments are addressed as well. The instruments operated for nine months (February – November, 2009) on-board CORONAS-Photon satellite
(LEO spacecraft). In addition to solar X-ray flux the instruments registered time-and space-dependent signal produced mainly by charged particles.
 An analysis of this particle signal is performed. The analysis results are compared to the results obtained from simulations in
SPENVIS. In particular, it was found that the spatial distribution of the TESIS particle-produced signal covers the region of the South Atlantic
Anomaly (SAA), so TESIS was mostly sensitive to protons. The spatial distribution of the SphinX particle signal had enhancements in SAA and
in the polar ovals, what corresponds to SphinX detector sensitivity to protons as well as to electrons. The mean total dose of the energetic
particles accumulated by the TESIS detectors during one day of flight per one pixel was found to be well agreed with the SPENVIS dose
estimations.

27.
Status of SWAP and LYRA data
David Berghmans

PROBA2 was launched successfully in November last year. The commissioning phase of spacecraft and instrument ended in March 2010. Here we present the current status of the two solar instruments onboard, SWAP and LYRA. SWAP is an EUV imager of the solar corona and LYRA is a UV radiometer. Special attention will be given to the currently available data products.